The 2010 Katyń Families Association
12.04.2015

Jürgen Roth claims in his "2015: Verschlussakte S: Smolensk, MH17 und Putins Krieg in der Ukraine" (2015: Secret Files S: Smolensk, MH17 and Putin’s War in Ukraine) that German intelligence believes the crash at Smolensk in western Russia may not have been accidental.

“The placement of explosives on board the Presidential TU-154M would have been impossible without the involvement of the Polish services” - Jurgen Roth in “Verschlussakte S”.


"There is no doubt that the conduct of the official Polish and Russian government institutions in the aftermath of the Smolensk Crash, left a wide field for speculation on the causes of the April 10, 2010 tragedy. Not surprisingly, the conspiracy theories that began to emerge immediately after the crash, found a fertile ground" - writes the German investigative journalist Jürgen Roth in the introduction to his book about the Smolensk crash, entitled "Verschluss Akte S" (Eng. “Secret File ‘S’”), that made its debut in Germany several days ago.


According to the author, both the Russian government’s Federal Security Service, or FSB (a present-day successor to the KGB), and the Polish government, immediately denied any complicity in the disaster, conveniently referring to any claims to the contrary, as a sheer nonsense. Not at all surprisingly, anyone who thought that Smolensk crash was anything other than an "accident", was conveniently labelled a “fairy-teller” who uses this tragic incident for political reasons.


The following is an excerpt from the report that Roth received from his BND (Federal Intelligence Service, or Bundesnachrichtendienst) source.


"Should this top secret Federal Intelligence Service document, bearing the date of March 2014, be ignored? It is on that date that the German intelligence operative sent his report to the headquarters in Pullach. The report drew on interviews conducted with a senior member of the Polish Government, and a leading officer of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). The document asserts the following: "A possible explanation for the cause of the 04-10-2010 crash of the TU-154 in Smolensk is a highly-probable assassination operation with the use explosives carried out by the Department of the FSB, operating under cover in the Ukrainian Poltava, under the command of General Yuri ‘D.’ from Moscow“."


According to Roth, it concerns the Department III of the FSB, responsible for the Scientific and Technical Operations. Its subdivisions include: Acquisition and Management of Arms, Military Equipment and Special-Purpose Equipment and Management of Operational and Technical agents. The BND document states:

 

Despite intense effort, it was impossible to ascertain the remaining course of the events for carrying out the [Smolensk] operation, acquisition of explosives, or further communication that ensued, as it would put the source in the field at risk”.


"As it happens with all the information originating from the BND, you can choose to believe it or not. However, taking under consideration all available pieces of the puzzle, it is apparent that they do fit the facts and evidence, and this suggests that this intelligence had not been fabricated." - writes Roth.


Jurgen Roth continues:


In February 2013, a recently deceased member of the Bundestag (representing the CDU), Andreas Schockenhoff, who was the former Federal Government coordinator, said during the Munich Conference on the German-Russian Cooperation on Security Policy:


"We know that there are all sorts of speculations about the causes of and responsibility for the Polish plane disaster in Smolensk. It is clear that these speculations can be explained only through the openness and transparency. Moscow's attitude is incomprehensible. Russians surround the whole thing in secrecy, which leads to questions about the motives for this behaviour" - we read in the February 2013 statement. The Russian position on this issue has not changed to this day [...] pp. 234-235


Circumstantial evidence and eyewitness accounts of explosions:


A lot of circumstantial evidence pointed to the fact that the crash was caused by one or more explosions - and this is corroborated by the BND report from March 2014. This document not only held that the order to take down the TU-154M came "directly" from a high-ranking Polish politician, but it was also directed to the FSB General, Yuri ‘D.’”


"It was not possible to ascertain when and where it took place." – the BND agent reports. The aforementioned FSB General made contact with the FSB Operations Group under the command of Dmytro ‘S.’, who was stationed in Poltava. "Dmytro S. and his group, consisting of fifteen full-time FSB operatives, used the official identity documents of the Ukrainian SBU [Security Service of Ukraine]. They are stationed there as a support for the SBU. In fact, they are all FSB officers attached to the Department III for Scientific and Technical Services.”


It begs the question, why it was the Department III of the FSB that would be involved in such an operation? Roth explains: Until 2011, “D.” served as an adviser on National Security issues to Hamid Karzai in Kabul, Afghanistan. It seems that “D” could easy secure access to the explosives. Still, given the fact that TU-154 was the Polish president’s government aircraft, it would have been subject to a very strict security protocol. The author states that rigging the plane with TNT, and placing the remote-controlled detonators on board, would have been impossible without the involvement and cooperation from Polish services who were on the inside.


Let us recap the BND Intelligence report cited in Mr. Roth's book:

 

- It lists two different sources,
- Source One is a high-ranking Polish government official,
- Source Two is a Russian FSB operative,
- Both sources informed the BND about the Smolensk operation,
- Both reports are produced independently of each other,
- Neither source has the knowledge of the other.


The German BND intelligence commented on the Smolensk crash already at the end of April, 2010: "Polish security services are currently exploring the circumstantial evidence in favor of a premeditated cause of the crash of the Polish President Lech Kaczynski aircraft on April 10, near Smolensk. In this context, the following background evidence was provided [earlier]. In the second half of 2009, the Polish energy enterprise and the Russian energy company Gazprom carried out negotiations concerning a new gas supply contract …”


Jurgen Roth tells us further that reading of the report reveals that Russians put forth excessive demands, which were not acceptable to the Polish negotiators.


 The BND drew attention to the exploratory study conducted by the Polish Geological Institute, which concluded that Poland may have the biggest shale gas deposits in Europe. "We further note, [that it is possible] to wean the country from foreign gas for the next hundred years. After this information was made public in the media, the Gazprom, and the Russian president in particular, demanded an urgent signing of the contract for the supply and transit of gas [from Russia to Poland […] Since Polish President Lech Kaczynski had a reputation for distrusting Russia, Putin has put his money on Donald Tusk and his ruling party, the Civic Platform (Pol. Platforma Obywatelska, abbr. PO). Since his election as Prime Minister, [Donald] Tusk was known for his friendly policy towards Russia.”

 

How seriously can we treat this information? Is this a disinformation that is widely used by intelligence outfits throughout the world as a part of their trade-craft, or are we dealing with a cold analysis of political power structures in Poland, that concerned very large economic projects?


Let us return to the explosions, however [...] pp. 261-262


Wild speculations or a cold calculation?


Meanwhile, the question of “who and how” placed the explosives on board, and detonated them, remains unanswered. Similarly, if the President’s plane was indeed rigged with explosives, it begs the question: what the political motives for the assassination would have been.


Thus far, we cannot provide definitive answer to this question. What we have is only a political assessment. If we were to believe the BND findings, the contract to take the TU154M down was given to the Russian FSB by a senior representative of the government of the Republic of Poland. Other intelligence services start with an assumption that Smolensk was possibly an “act of lawlessness” carried out by a small group of conspirators, that didn’t have to get an advanced order to go ahead with the operation. The opposition in Poland, especially the PiS [Pol. “Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc”, Law and Justice - the late President’s opposition Party] believes that the motive was implacable opposition of President Lech Kaczynski to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.


In 2010, the BND wrote:


At the time of his death, Lech Kaczynski has left a whole range of unsigned and un-amended laws and trade agreements on the table. The value of one of these unsigned contracts alone amounted to more than 50 billion Euro - which in the case of the Polish security authorities had to raise the question, whether the Polish president had to die because of the Russian gas? In August 2009, for the first time, Putin and his colleague Donald Tusk mutually agreed on the content of a draft that would define the means of the Russian gas supplies to Poland. While it was mutually agreeable to "both sides", it was however, temporarily suspended; this for the reasons that remain unexplained to this day." Elsewhere, we read: “The fact that it was above the Katyn graves that Putin pulled a contract out of his pocket, and shoved it in the Donald Tusk’s face, is seen by various high-ranking officials in the Polish security organizations, as "insulting and mocking".


The report concludes with the following sentence: It is not only the Polish security authorities that ponder about all the uncertainties surrounding the death of Lech Kaczynski. They also wonder why, exactly in Katyn, was Donald Tusk offered such an unfavourable contract, and what were his reasons to accepted it?” […] pp. 263-264

 

The parallels with the Malaysian passenger plane downing on 17 June 2014, are obvious. Depending on the prevailing political climate, the circumstantial evidence on hand will surely be viewed as either reliable, or unreliable. At the time the government institutions are conducting their investigations into the cause of the accident; the political pressures will trickle in and play a decisive role in their outcome. However, this is also exactly what differs the Smolensk crash from what took place in Ukraine four years later. In the case of the Malaysian Airlines passenger aircraft downing, there is an international commission of inquiry, which can operate relatively independently. In Poland, however, such an inquiry was excluded just moments after the crash was reported.

 

The experience gained from observing Russia, and not only in connection with the MH17 downing, shows that disinformation is a popular method of covering up murders and assassinations. Political power-plays, or fear of consequences seem to be obvious in the case of the investigation of the Presidential aircraft crash in Smolensk. Professor Marek Żylicz, member of the Miller Commission put it with artless candor: "Our aim was not to cause a war with the Russians, just to get the bare minimum information, so we can put this investigation to rest”.

 

Mr. Roth writes further - it is precisely for this reason, that the crucial issue of the explosion on board the Tupolev 154M remains unexplained to this day.


There are too many varied politically-motivated variables at play, to allow for an impartial explanation of whether there was or was not an explosion – let alone, whether it was an assassination or not. Undoubtedly, the circumstantial evidence supports the hypothesis that the aircraft was destroyed by an explosion. You cannot rationally explain an outright hate for the independent scientists, who have explored, inter alia, the possibility of explosions on board the presidential aircraft. This phenomenon is unique in Europe. After all, nothing stands in the way of vetting the credibility of scientific results gathered by these scientists in an open discussion.

 

The Smoking Gun – explanations and comments [...] pp. 270-271:

 

Vladimir Putin's decision to treat the State Aircraft with the President of the Republic of Poland on board, as a civilian aircraft, gave Russia almost exclusive authority over the conduct of the investigation. Thus, the Polish experts and investigators were completely dependent on the good will of Russia, which caused a great anxiety among the Polish security authorities. After all, it was no secret that the Russian government would make sure that their own interests are fully protected, and supersede all others. It is here, that once again the BND report from 2010 should be recalled. The document states, among other things, that Polish government’s trust in the Russian investigation, was critically received by the Polish security organs: "A great majority of [Polish] security authorities share a deep distrust of the investigation conducted by the Russian side […] - concluded Jurgen Roth

 

Mr. Roth’s book (presently available only in German) may be ordered here

 

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Written by Ryb
Source: wPolityce and http://www.smolenskcrashnews.com/jurgen-roth-book-excerpts-verschlussakte-s-smolensk-mh17-putin-war-in-ukraine.html